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    THE BridgeNews FORUM: On farming, farm policy 
    and related agricultural issues. 
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* A Popular Government Policy To Combat Foot-And-Mouth Disease,
  But One That Could Keep People Home On Election Day
  
  
    By David Walker, agricultural economist 

NORWICH, England--While it may feel, after listening to every news 
broadcast for updates, like half a lifetime since the first case in the 
recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in England was confirmed, it's 
been only a week.


     It seems the worst-case scenario has arisen at every turn, resulting 
in the disease spreading almost instantly to the four corners of the 
kingdom.


     With the public supportive of calls for staying out of the countryside 
to avoid possible spread of the disease, the British government may 
have to delay the anticipated election call.


     FMD is a highly infectious viral disease of all cloven-hoofed 
livestock including cattle, pigs, sheep and goats. In addition to 
being spread between animals and on vehicles, it can also be 
carried on the wind. It is endemic in much of the third world.


     North America, western Europe and Australasia have generally 
been successful in excluding the disease. This has been done by 
prohibiting imports of uncooked meat and livestock from countries 
where FMD is endemic and slaughtering infected and implicated herds 
when outbreaks have occurred.


     The first U.K. case in 20 years was found last week amongst some 
sows that had spent the weekend awaiting slaughter at a large Essex 
abattoir north and east of London. These sows had been shipped from 
two farms one on the Isle of Wight on England's south coast, the other 
north and west of London.


     These farms were immediately quarantined, but the source was found 
instead on a farm in Northumbria 300 miles north of the abattoir 
and was according to some reports as much as four weeks old.


     The farmers in question not only raised their own pigs but bought 
sows at local markets and shipped them south via their own farms. 
It would seem the outbreak in his own herd had, at least in this once 
incident, infected the sows bought for shipping south for slaughter.


     It would appear these sows had not shown any symptoms before 
slaughter but had passed their infection to the sows that had 
developed symptoms over the weekend.


     As was to be expected, several cases were found close to the 
Northumbria farm and the Essex abattoir. On Friday the usual 
prohibition of five miles around infected farms was extended for a 
week across the whole country.


     No doubt the ministry of agriculture appreciated the implications 
of a livestock dealer's involvement and the great distances livestock move.


     While no cases were uncovered on Saturday, on Sunday a nightmare 
outbreak was reported, involving another farmer and livestock dealer 
who owned livestock at 13 locations in Devon and Cornwall, in southwest 
England, 400 miles from the original source.


     Sheep had been picked up from one of the infected farms in 
Northumbria and via two livestock markets in the north had been 
shipped to Devon.


     Not only did this outbreak open the possibility of the disease 
spreading to literally anywhere in Britain, but the farms were in 
the center of a major livestock grazing area where the epidemic will be 
difficult to control.


     It's by no means certain the misery has been confined to Britain. 
While an export ban was put in place as soon as FMD was diagnosed, the 
Devon farmer had recent exported sheep, and the abattoir shipped sow 
meat on an almost daily basis to amongst other places, Germany for use 
in sausages.


     In the case of the sheep, they can almost certainly be traced 
and isolated if not slaughtered.

     The German sausage could be more of a problem, if the British 
experience is anything to go by. The original source farmer was a 
licensed swill feeder, collecting food refuse from hotels, restaurants, 
schools and other institutions and feeding them after cooking to his pigs.

     The illegal importation of meat from some country where foot and 
mouth was endemic and incomplete cooking of the swill is an obvious 
potential source of the infection.

     It could prove to be equally so for Europe. Who knows where those 
German sausages went. For British farmers eventually the post-mortem 
will go beyond where the disease came from this time.

     Coming just six months after an outbreak of classic swine fever, 
(another whole-herd slaughter policy disease that had not been 
seen in the country for 15 years), the question will be whether 
this is coincidence or a trend.

     Suggestions will be made that the disease would never have entered 
the country if there had been proper import controls; that the 
disease would never have developed on the farm if low margins had not 
forced the farmer to cut corners; that the disease would not have spread so 
quickly if the government had been more understanding of the plight of 
smaller local abattoirs.

     The public seem to be understanding of the plight of farmers. The 
government and farm organizations have asked the public to stay 
out of the countryside during the duration of the outbreak and several 
sporting events that attract large crowds have been cancelled.

     A planned mass rally in central London of countryside interests 
groups planned for March 17 has been cancelled.  Avoiding unnecessary 
travel in rural areas has even developed an aura of 
political correctness.

     Paradoxically, this positive public reaction may become a cause of 
concern to the government. Any attempt by the government to 
encourage meetings and travel in the countryside--by for 
instance, calling a general election--could be unpopular.

     This inconvenience will surely do more to raise the profile of 
countryside concerns with the government than any amount of lobbying 
and demonstrating. 


DAVID WALKER, an agricultural economist, lives on his family's farm  
outside Norwich, England. He recently served as senior economist in London  
for the Home-Grown Cereals Authority and previously was executive director 
of the Alberta Grain Commission in Canada. He also maintains a Web site at 
www.openi.co.uk. His views are not necessarily those of BridgeNews, whose 
ventures include the Internet site www.bridge.com. 
  
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    EDITORS: A color photo of the author is available from KRT Photo 
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